Europe's influence in future peace negotiations in Ukraine will depend in part on which chancellor takes power in Berlin after the parliamentary elections that will be held on February 23. Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) candidate and favorite to win the election, has so far advocated the need to help Ukraine win the war, both financially and militarily.

After discussions with multiple European leaders, he is due to speak on the subject on Friday, February 14, following an exchange with U.S. Vice President JD Vance during the security conference being held from February 14 to 16 in Munich, a week ahead of the German elections. He is also scheduled to meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European foreign minister Kaja Kallas and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, among others.

"I'm now very pessimistic about Ukraine's outlook," he said on Thursday, February 13, in a televised debate. "With hindsight, we will kick ourselves for not having helped Ukraine early and enough," he judged, predicting that Russia's next target would be "the Baltic countries."

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