For over 20 years, Friedrich Merz has aspired to the highest office in Berlin, a position he has long been denied by his long-time rival. He could be described as anti-Merkel, as much of his political trajectory has been shaped in opposition to the former chancellor.

But the 69-year-old Christian Democrat, who will carry the banner of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)-Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) in the upcoming federal elections, has learned the value of patience.

Representing Germany's richest and most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia where he was born, Merz is widely considered the favorite to win the chancellorship in 2025, according to the polls. Indeed, political commentators are more interested in potential coalition scenarios – whether Merz will govern with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the Greens – than in his program, which he has carefully avoided revealing too early to avoid unnecessary scrutiny.

For Merz is far from being a popular candidate. Opinion polls show that the CDU-CSU coalition has just over 30% of the vote, well short of the 40% promised by Merz when he ran for the CDU leadership. And yet, the timing is historically favorable: Merz will face off against the much disliked Olaf Scholz, outgoing chancellor (SPD), as well as the equally unpopular economy minister, Robert Habeck, the Greens' candidate.

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