Temperatures in mainland France are on track to increase by 4°C by 2100 due to global warming, the government warned on Friday, October 25, urging coping strategies for a much hotter country.
A report presented by Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Friday said that uncertainties surrounding the longevity of greenhouse gases made estimates beyond 2050 hazardous. The publication came nearly a decade after Paris hosted the landmark 2015 Climate Change Conference, which adopted a legally binding treaty to limit global warming.
But based on scientific evidence, the 2015 targets of keeping the increase as close as possible to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels will already be overshot in the early 2030s, the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) report said.
"Respecting the Paris Agreement remains the target," the report said. "But in the face of the risk of overshooting those targets, it is necessary to prepare for global warming of four percent in 2100."
The world as a whole is on track for a median temperature increase of 3.2°C by the end of the century, it said. But mainland France, "which is heating up faster than other parts of the world," is projected to see an average temperature rise of two degrees in 2030, 2.7 degrees by 2050 and four degrees by 2100 on the basis of current commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
"This figure may seem abstract, but the consequences of this warming curve for our society are extremely concrete," the report said.
This scenario gives the government "a robust warming trajectory" on which to base its policies, it said. Average temperatures will rise, heatwaves will become longer and more intense, there will be extreme flooding and extreme droughts and sea levels will rise. Water management issues and soil erosion are among major expected challenges, it said.
If nothing is done, France's gross domestic product (GDP) risks dropping by 10 points by 2100. The agriculture sector would lose €1 billion ($1.1 billion) every year by 2050, and 500,000 homes would come under threat because of a receding coastline by the end of the century, the report said.
The government's plan contains 51 measures to protect the population, insure against risk, adapt human activity, protect natural and cultural spaces, and mobilize public services. The plan will be updated regularly, it said.