Forty-seven minutes. That's the time that elapsed on Monday, February 3, between Prime Minister François Bayrou triggering Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force through the state budget bill and doing so again for the first part of the social security budget bill.

Although the opposition has 24 hours to file a motion of no confidence, MPs from the radical-left La France Insoumise (LFI) party, along with several of their allies from the Nouveau Front Populaire left-wing alliance, didn't wait for this deadline to do so.

The two motions of no confidence will most likely be debated on Wednesday. If the government survives these votes, Bayrou will probably use Article 49.3 for a third time for the second part of the social security budget bill and possibly a fourth time on Friday for the third part of this "Sécu" budget.

Although the Socialists announced ahead of the meeting that it would not support the toppling of the government – thus making the government's fall highly unlikely – Bayrou took to the Assemblée Nationale's podium with caution. Staying true to the line he and his ministers have been hammering home for several weeks, he emphasized the high stakes: "We're at the moment of truth. We're even at the week of truth and responsibility," he said, listing all those who he believes are waiting for a budget to break the deadlock created by the toppling of prime minister Michel Barnier's government on December 4, 2024. "We have spared no effort," he said, highlighting recent compromises, notably with the Socialists.

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