French Prime Minister Michel Barnier seems to be confronting the danger head-on. He has invited far-right leader Marine Le Pen, a woman who could be fatal to his political destiny, to meet with him at his residence, Matignon, on the morning of Monday, November 25. Does the 73-year-old former European commissioner, renowned for his negotiating skills during Brexit, believe that this meeting will dissuade the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) from toppling him and his government? For several days now, Le Pen, currently on trial for embezzling funds from the European Parliament, has been threatening the government with a motion of no confidence, which could plunge the country into the unknown.
The scenario has already been outlined by the RN. Between December 18 and 20, the prime minister may need to invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the 2025 budget – which aims to save €60 billion – without a vote in Parliament. The far-right party could then deliver a fatal blow by lending its votes (140 of them if you count RN ally Eric Ciotti and his followers) to support a motion proposed by the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance (NFP, 192 MPs) against the government. Barnier's government would be toppled.
"It's become inevitable," said MEP Philippe Olivier, a close adviser to Le Pen. "The point is to block a 51st bankrupt budget and a government of good-for-nothings that follows the same political line as [Elisabeth] Borne and [Gabriel] Attal [the two previous prime ministers]," said RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy, also very close to Le Pen.
Are they bluffing? The ministers, including Barnier, seem to have accepted this troubling hypothesis. On November 19, interviewed on radio France Inter, Catherine Vautrin, minister of partnership with local authorities, ended many of her sentences with the phrase "if we're still here at the beginning of the year." Barnier, meanwhile, appears to feign resignation: "I'm ready to leave tomorrow morning if the conditions are no longer right (...) to reform this country," he warned on France Bleu on November 15, emphasizing that he didn't "roll on the floor" to get his job.
"Michel Barnier is aware of the precariousness of his situation. He lives with this sword of Damocles," said an adviser to the prime minister's office. Since being appointed on September 5, Barnier has been described as being "" by the far right. The RN has the largest number of seats in the Assemblée Nationale, but it, along with its allies on the right and center, does not have a majority. "Nothing can be done without the RN," boasted RN President Jordan Bardella on September 7.
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