Officially, the European election campaign was not the "primary reason" behind Gabriel Attal's surprise choice for Prime Minister. After ten days of consultations, only France's "rearmament and regeneration project" had determined the French President's decision, asserted the Elysée. However, "it's not forbidden, when you're President of the Republic, to think about upcoming elections," admitted a source in Emmanuel Macron's entourage. Particularly when they touch to the core of president's political identity.

While the presidential coalition still has not named the head of its list for the European elections on June 9, the Rassemblement National (RN, far-right) is leading the polls, some ten points ahead of the Renaissance-MoDem-Horizons Macron-aligned list. This has given rise to fears of a major electoral setback for the French president on the European stage, his favorite arena. A defeat from which he would have difficulty recovering on the domestic scene, with three years to go before the end of his term of office. "Emmanuel Macron cannot lose these elections," observed constitutional expert Benjamin Morel. "If he loses them, now that he cannot stand for re-election in 2027, he will lose control of his five-year term."

Five months to the day before the elections, the promotion of the highly popular Education Minister has enabled the president – who was short of projects – to open a new, highly political "sequence." The former prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, who had forced the passage of two particularly divisive laws (on pensions and immigration), was a prime minister of "action and courage," as Attal described her on the steps of his new office on Tuesday, January 9, during the handover between them. Yet she was not equipped to lead a political battle, according to the Elysée.

Her successor Attal is unlikely to have any major reforms to push through Parliament between now and the summer. Nor, unlike his predecessor, will he be under pressure to expand the government's parliamentary majority. However, he will, he promised, embody "audacity and movement." And "he will necessarily, institutionally, have a role in the European campaign," said sources at the Elysée.

The new prime minister, appreciated by the Macron-supporters for his "puncher" qualities, will be the one to fire back at the opposition in the Assemblée Nationale, to attract voters at rallies and in front of the cameras. Although he had not wanted to lead the list for the European elections, a plan that the Elysée had at one time envisaged, Attal will be a campaign prime minister. As Macron's supporters would have it, he will narrow the gap between the presidential bloc's list and that of the RN. "He will be the head of the list by proxy," said his friend Hervé Marseille, president of the Macron-aligned centrist group in the Sénat. Morel also sees Attal, who has a "more energetic" presence than that of his prime ministerial predecessors, as the sign of a "very offensive strategy for the European elections."

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