France's Prime Minister Michel Barnier triggered article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass his social security budget without a vote, as he lacked a majority of MPs to support his financing bill on Monday, December 2. Such a move could trigger a vote of no-confidence, which could happen as early as Wednesday and is likely to succeed.
Marine Le Pen, parliamentary leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), is key to this vote of no-confidence, with Barnier having little hope of finding any support on the left. The RN is the largest single party in the 577-seat National Assembly, with more than 140 deputies. In the latest concession to the far right, the prime minister's office said it was scrapping plans for a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy from next year.
France escaped a debt downgrade by S&P last week, with the ratings agency saying that "despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply – with a delay – with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances." Barnier has promised to improve France's fiscal position by €60 billion in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public deficit to 5% of gross domestic product, from 6.1% of GDP this year.
If the government falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou's government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.