Despite the uncertainty clouding its outlook, the French economy is expected to scrape by in 2025: Growth is forecast to reach 0.8% by the end of the year, according to projections published by INSEE, France's national statistics bureau, on Thursday, September 11. This figure is only slightly higher than the 0.7% growth forecast made by the Finance Ministry in April. To reach this result, INSEE estimates growth at 0.3% in the third quarter and 0.2% in the fourth, following an almost symmetrical first half of the year (0.1% in the first quarter and 0.3% in the second).

While remaining afloat, the French economy will not be leading the pack in a Europe that is bouncing back (with expected growth of 1.4% in 2025, compared to 0.8% in 2024, according to INSEE). Germany is emerging from recession, while Italy and Spain continue to display enviable dynamism. In Spain, growth is expected to reach 0.6% in each of the next two quarters. The eurozone is experiencing a rebound in investment, real estate markets are picking up, and falling oil prices are benefiting businesses.

Compared to its neighbors, France has one advantage: Inflation remains low. Annual price increases stood at 0.9% in August, compared to 2.1% across the eurozone. On September 11, the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for the eurozone in 2025 to 2.1%.

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