What will be the cost to the French economy of the trade war launched by the United States? "Trump's policy could cost us more than 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP)," warned Prime Minister François Bayrou in an interview published on Sunday, April 6, in Le Parisien. If this figure proves to be accurate, it would represent a significant blow to the French economy: Growth, which reached a modest 1.1% in 2024, was not expected to exceed 0.7% this year, according to the latest estimates from the Banque de France.

The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), which does not make long-term projections, expects a growth gain of 0.4% by mid-2025. It doesn't require an expert to see that a half-point drop in GDP would leave French growth on its knees, with cascading effects. "The risk of job losses is absolutely major, as is that of an economic slowdown and a halt in investments," Bayrou said. Following Trump's "Liberation Day," when the tariffs were announced, Patrick Martin, the head of MEDEF, France's largest employer federation, estimated that "hundreds of thousands of jobs were threatened" in France.

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