The Elysée has done everything in its power to manage expectations. Ahead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receiving Emmanuel Macron and a large part of his government in Hamburg on Monday, October 9, and Tuesday, October 10, the French president's entourage insisted that this meeting would be "informal." The objective is a free-form discussion of "subjects that go beyond current affairs," such as artificial intelligence and industrial change, without worrying about negotiating a joint declaration, as is customary at the joint councils of ministers that the two countries have held almost every year since 2003.
On the German side, it was emphasized that the "unprecedented format" of this meeting, which will take place in the city where Scholz was mayor from 2011 to 2018, testifies to the "intensity" and "depth" of the relationship between the two countries.
While there will be some fine images to look forward to – a visit by Scholz and Macron to the Airbus plant in Hamburg, a "stroll" by the two leaders along the banks of the Elbe – this meeting is being held at a time when the rift between Paris and Berlin is causing a strain in European affairs, to the point of raising increasingly serious doubts about the ability of the French-German partnership to drive things forward.
According to Petteri Orpo, Finland's prime minister since June, "this complicates things." "We all expect the two countries, in the difficult context in which the European Union finds itself, to be able to find common ground on as many subjects as possible," said the conservative leader, who dined at the Elysée Palace on Wednesday. German Christian Democrat David McAllister (CDU), the chairman of the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee, added, "For the time being, we notice a remarkable lack of coordination between Paris and Berlin. And that's not good. I don't think we've ever seen so little cooperation between Paris and Berlin."
"In the plus column, France and Germany continue to talk to each other. There is no rupture," said a source within the Elysée. In the minus column, one is tempted to add that these discussions are going nowhere – at least on certain subjects. Indeed, Paris and Berlin have been battling it out within European bodies for months now, without achieving the slightest breakthrough – over the place of nuclear power in Europe, the industrial policy to be adopted by the EU-27 or the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, which has been rendered obsolete by the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Not to mention defense, where joint projects remain fragile. "The relationship between France and Germany is running on empty," said Sébastien Maillard, a special advisor to the Jacques Delors Institute.
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