"There are those who say it's doomed, and those who say we'll get there, and they're all wrong," summarized a diplomat. Eight years after its launch by President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Franco-German next-generation combat aircraft project, known as the Future Combat Air System (SCAF), is facing another existential crisis – possibly more serious than previous ones. In political and industrial circles in both Paris and Berlin, few seemed to believe this ambitious project would ever be completed. Initially valued at €100 billion, it was intended to symbolize a sovereign European defense capability.

"The current situation is not satisfactory," said an unusually critical German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during a visit to Madrid on September 18. "We are not making progress with this project." Time is running out: A decision on whether to move into phase two has to be made before the end of the year, or else the project risks drifting beyond its 2040 deadline for completion.

In early May, Merz's election – a committed European eager to revive the weakened Franco-German partnership – had raised hopes for a restart of this emblematic project, which had often been declared doomed since its inception. But five months since taking office, the risk of a breakdown has never been greater. The matter was not even officially discussed at the Franco-German cabinet meeting in Toulon (southern France) on August 29, after which it was postponed to the year's end.

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