After an unprecedented price crisis in 2022, gas demand continues to fall in France, as with electricity. At 381 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2023, gross gas consumption has dropped sharply, by 11.4% since 2022, and by 20% since 2021, according to GRTgaz, which published its annual review for the past year on Tuesday, February 27. This is the first time since at least the 2000s that consumption has fallen back below 400 TWh, the country's gas transmission system operator told Le Monde.
The company, majority-owned by Engie (formerly GDF), pointed to several factors to explain this drop. Global warming and mild winters have reduced heating requirements: 2023 was the second warmest year after 2022 since the beginning of the 20th century, according to Météo-France. That said, consumption remains down even when weather variations are excluded, GRTgaz pointed out. Taking them into account, the drop is 6.5% compared to 2022 and 13.2% compared to 2021 for the public distribution sector (households, service sector, small-scale industry).
Another factor is that a high megawatt-hour price can dampen demand, especially in times of inflation, not only for households but also for large industrial customers. On February 23, gas prices on the spot (near-term) market returned to their May 2021 level. This was the level prior to the war in Ukraine, which was triggered by the Russian army in February 2022 and below €23 per megawatt-hour in the Netherlands, the continental benchmark.
Declining share of Russian hydrocarbons
Gas consumption also depends on nuclear power plants, France's main source of electricity. In 2023, the volume of gas used to generate electricity fell back to 36 TWh. This is 40% less than in 2022, when several nuclear power plants had to be shut down due to corrosion.
GRTgaz also attributes part of the drop "to new behaviors" among the population. In other words, a desire to save energy for reasons other than price – for example, to avoid using fossil fuels, which are harmful to the climate. Or even to reduce dependence on supplies from a third country like Russia. It's impossible, however, to determine exactly how much of this is due to one reason or another. "More efficient energy use is a way of moving towards greater French and European sovereignty," said Sandrine Meunier, appointed GRTgaz director general in January.
Since 2022, the European Union has set an ambitious target: to be able to do without Russian hydrocarbons by 2027. Their share has already fallen significantly following the Kremlin's closure of gas pipelines. Nevertheless, sales continue, mainly by ship, including in France, which imports almost all of its consumption.
You have 43.15% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.