The far-right Rassemblement National made historic progress in the first round of France's snap legislative elections on Sunday, June 30, in a vote marked by a high increase in turnout. With 34% of the vote together with its allies, according to initial estimates, the party led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella almost doubled its score from the 2022 elections, as it hopes to conquer power for the first time.

President Emmanuel Macron, who called the snap elections on June 9 after his side's defeat in the European elections, sees his coalition rank third, with 20.3%, as the alliance of left-wing parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire, reached 28.1%, according to the initial estimates from Ipsos Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, France24/RFI and LCP Assemblée Nationale.

The shape of the new Assemblée Nationale will only become clear after the second round on July 7, but Sunday's results show the RN is closer than ever to reaching its goal. If the RN obtains an absolute majority, party chief Bardella, Le Pen's 28-year-old protégé with no governing experience, could become prime minister in a tense cohabitation with Macron.

Voters in the 577 districts will have to choose next Sunday between the two best-placed candidates from the first round – sometimes three or even four, in districts where additional candidates meet the criteria to qualify. A key factor in deciding the shape of the future legislature will be how Macron and the left-wing parties instruct their voters to behave in the next vote: In recent years, the tradition of the "republican front" – when parties decide to back the candidates best placed to beat the far right, regardless of their affiliation – has broken down.