Viktor Orban is the only European leader to publicly back a Donald Trump victory in the November 5 presidential election. Hungary's illiberal prime minister, an ally of the French far-right party Rassemblement National in the European Parliament, even boasts of his ideological closeness to the Republican candidate when it comes to blasting immigration, defending "Christian civilization," or calling for appeasement with Russia in Ukraine. Perhaps, with Trump's support, he intends to consolidate his position as the troublemaker in the European Union, able to speak to Vladimir Putin as well as to the populist leader.

In Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and Brussels, his European counterparts are far more reserved, fearing that a second term for Trump would be even more turbulent than the first for transatlantic relations, to the detriment of a European continent weakened as never before by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Although reluctant to take an open stand, many leaders in Europe inwardly prefer the victory of Trump's Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, who is considered a worthy successor to the outgoing president, having replaced him at short notice in July to save the Democratic campaign from a predicted trainwreck.

When Joe Biden was chosen as the Democratic nominee to face Trump in November 2020, European leaders had already expressed their relief. They applauded the "America is back" promise by the Democrats concerning world affairs, hoping for a break with the isolationism proclaimed by his predecessor. This was a relief to those in Europe, anxious to regain an attentive ear from their American "big brother." After the Republican's many charges against NATO and the European Union, which was seen as weakened by Brexit, who better than Biden, steeped in Cold War history, to embody the awakening of the American protector, leader of the democracies against the autocracies that are undermining the international order in Europe and across the globe?

Disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan

Four years on, the honeymoon between Biden and the Europeans has hit a few bumps in the road, to the point where Europeans have learned to discern, beyond an obvious difference in style between the two leaders, a form of continuity between the two Republican and Democratic administrations, whether in terms of foreign policy or the defense of American interests.

The precipitous withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan at the end of August 2021, decided unilaterally by Biden without really consulting his European allies, was a first warning. Barack Obama's former vice president was merely carrying out Trump's decision to pull out American forces under an agreement signed with the Taliban in 2020, more than a year before the latter seized power in Kabul.

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