There are still many uncertainties surrounding the circumstances in which the Baltic-connector gas pipeline, linking Estonia and Finland, and an undersea telecommunications cable were damaged in the eastern Baltic Sea on the weekend. While the investigation is still in its early stages, Helsinki and Tallinn, which have received the support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), suspect a deliberate act.

The scenario is strangely reminiscent of the still-unsolved sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines on September 26, 2022. This time, at 1:20 am on Sunday morning, the Norwegian seismological institute Norsar recorded a tremor with a magnitude of one (compared with 1.9 and 2.3 for Nord Stream), indicating "a probable explosion" that occurred around 40 km north of the Estonian port of Paldiski. From there, the 77 km-long pipeline runs to Inkoo in Finland.

Gas was flowing through the 50-centimeter-diameter pipe on the seabed when, shortly before 2 am, the pressure suddenly dropped. The operators Gasgrid Finland and Elering closed the valves and stopped transmission. After examining the pipeline "millimeter by millimeter," according to Markku Hassinen, deputy chief of the Finnish Border Guard, the leak was located early on Tuesday in the Finnish exclusive economic zone.

"According to preliminary assessments, the damage observed cannot be the result of normal use of the pipe or pressure fluctuations," said the Finnish prime minister, Petteri Orpo, at a press conference in Helsinki in the late afternoon, deeming it "likely that the leak was the result of outside activity." Alongside him, Inspector Timo Kilpeläinen of the National Bureau of Investigation spoke of "a deliberate act," which could not have been "done by an ordinary person," while adding that "there were no indications that explosives had been used." The Finnish police have opened an investigation for "gross sabotage."

In Tallinn on Tuesday evening, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said that the damage had been caused "by something greater than a diver or unmanned submersible. The damage is more extensive." The Estonian navy believes it has identified the site of the damage to the underwater cable, which sits at a depth of 70 meters in Estonian waters. According to Pevkur, "it is not possible to say whether the two incidents are related," as "geographically they are located in completely different places [...] although the timing is quite close."

You have 63.56% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.