Donald Trump's reelection is likely to challenge three core principles that underpin Europe's way of life and prosperity: an economy heavily reliant on transatlantic trade, security mainly dependent on NATO, and political systems grounded in liberal democracy and the belief in the possibility of harmony between nations.
This observation is not new. For years, various studies, articles, and reports have been alerting European public opinion to these interrelated risks.
First, there is the risk of the European Union [EU] falling behind China and the US economically and technologically. The recent Draghi Report reminded us that Europe never fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, that it has missed the digital boat, and that it is no longer an attractive destination for investors.
Isolationism
Then there's the shadow cast over Europe's security by Russia and the retreat of the US; the election campaign has shown that isolationism is in vogue among US citizens, who seem only concerned about their country's relations with China.
The third risk is that of a broader assault on the values of liberal democracy, which form the foundation of the political systems of the EU member states and the institutions of the Union itself. The increasingly vitriolic rhetoric that now characterizes American politics shows that these values are under strain, with powerful forces promoting a much more brutal conception of the public sphere.
Europe has its back to the wall and must prepare for alarming developments. These include an openly protectionist US policy, an erosion – whether gradual or abrupt – of the principles that have governed international trade since the Second World War, a US disengagement from global security mechanisms, and, lastly, a challenge of the virtues of liberal democracy.
In this critical context, European integration has stalled, lacking both budgets and leadership. On the member states' side, no political leader seems capable – or willing – to advance the European project. With Trump's election, the risk of a retreat into national self-interest is looming large.
Radical ideas gaining ground
On the side of the European Commission, the reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen comes at a time when many European heads of state and government are struggling and coincides with the departure of the Commission's most prominent figures. It is likely that, in the name of her Atlanticist views, von der Leyen will not want to take any initiative that could displease the American authorities.
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