Since Hamas's terrorist attacks on October 7, European leaders have been visiting Israel successively, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni. "It's the new Kyiv," said one European diplomat, recalling the parade of the same leaders in Ukraine a few months ago.
While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dominates the headlines, the 277 member states are concerned about sending the message that the war in Ukraine is no longer their priority. The European heads of state and government, meeting in Brussels on October 26, reaffirmed their support for Kyiv. "Europe stands by Ukraine," Scholz declared.
Two of the German leader's counterparts, however, sounded a very different note. Slovakia's new Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that, unlike his predecessor, he would not provide military aid to Ukraine and would not vote for new European sanctions against Russia until he had assessed the consequences for his country.
Hungary's Viktor Orban said he was "proud" to have shaken hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin in China on October 17. Orban said he "does not support" the Commission's proposal to release €50 billion to help the Ukrainian government between 2024 and 2027. Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said that meeting Putin amounted to "showing the middle finger" to Ukraine.
This is not the first time Hungary has disassociated itself from its European partners in response to the war in Ukraine, but so far Budapest has not carried out its threats. Accustomed to blackmail on the EU stage, Hungary is hoping to bend the Commission, which, in the name of the rule of law, has frozen over €13 billion in funds earmarked for the country. "He has been critical of supporting Ukraine, but he has been part of it," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said, who said she hoped he would continue to do so.
As for what Fico, who during his election campaign claimed to be close to the Kremlin, will do, European leaders are still waiting to see. "He needs European funds too much to go all the way," one European diplomat observed. "As long as they say the wrong things and do the right things, I think we are fine," Kallas concluded.
"We cannot allow war fatigue to set in – that is what the Kremlin is hoping for. It wants to exhaust our systems and our patience. Ukraine still needs more support," declared Roberta Metsola, the president of the European Parliament. Europe knows that Moscow is simply waiting for the weariness to become too much. Basically, the war in Ukraine "still threatens our direct interests," one European diplomat said. "We have more concrete means to act in Ukraine than in the Middle East. We can tell ourselves what we want, but it's not the European Union that will manage the crisis in the Middle East, it's the regional powers," another EU colleague added.
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