This is the paradox of the European election: While the vote holds little interest for the French and mainly attracts a well-educated, pro-Europe electorate of executives from big cities, its outcome says nothing about the subsequent elections. However, all the political parties know that on the evening of June 9, they will engage in a battle of interpretation over the election results, with the 2027 presidential election in their sights.

On the left, everyone is sharpening their weapons, hoping to reshape the political space, after the failure of the left-wing New Popular, Environmental, and Social Union (NUPES) alliance. Will they be able to agree on a single candidate for 2027? And above all, on a common platform? What will be its center of gravity?

With three years to go until the presidential election, many people want to take advantage of the European election to challenge the hegemony claimed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is considered incapable of bringing the left to power. In a demonstration that the threat is real, the former Socialist senator who is "in retreat but not in retirement," has begun to set up defensive measures, keen to counter these ambitions.

Although he denies it, the three-time presidential candidate, 72, has not given up on a fourth go-round. His wish to "be replaced" convinces no one, especially those who have known him for a long time. All the more so when he qualifies this by including himself among the "hypothetical" candidates for 2027.

His first task was to prevent the La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left) party list from failing miserably in the European elections. The political veteran threw himself wholeheartedly into the battle, putting himself in the non-qualifying but symbolic last place on the list, and making this ballot "the first round of the presidential election." "He wants to plant his flag and position himself. Otherwise, others will do it for him," said political analyst Rémi Lefebvre.

It's a double-edged commitment for the former Socialist senator, aware that a poor outcome would be blamed on him, or even used as a pretext by his critics. A seasoned politician, he has already begun to distill the arguments that would explain a defeat. "In the absence of a single list, everything seems to be working against us," he wrote, in his blog on February 6. It's a way of preemptively shifting the blame onto his former NUPES partners, who insisted on going at it alone at the European elections.

For the future, Mélenchon is already trying to contain any coup ambitions, by chipping away at a list of potential successors. The composition of this list changes over time, but it currently features several prominent candidates of equal standing: Mathilde Panot, LFI group president in the Assemblée Nationale (lower house of parliament); Manuel Bompard, coordinator of the LFI movement; and François Ruffin, the MP for Somme in northern France.

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