The considerable lead held by the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party in the polls for June's European elections has given rise to the notion that the election is a foregone conclusion, which is often accompanied by another common theme, that of the presumed disinterest – or hostility – of the French people toward the European Union (EU). Our electoral survey provides some nuance to those ideas.

First, let's remember that in 2019, despite the Yellow Vests crisis that had taken center stage in the national campaign, Macron’s La République en marche party (now rebranded as Renaissance) was hot on the heels of the RN, behind by just a few hundredths of a point. The president's party, while weakened on the domestic scene, was still benefiting from the momentum of the 2017 presidential election and, to a certain extent, from concerns over a still-ongoing Brexit and Donald Trump's antagonistic American presidency.

Today, this tiny gap has become a yawning chasm, with 31% of voting intentions for the RN list led by Jordan Bardella, that party's president; and 18% for the Renaissance list, led by Valérie Hayer. The rest of the national political landscape continues to appear fragmented: 11.5% for the Parti Socialiste (PS, left), 8.5% for the French Greens (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts), and 7% for both Les Républicains (LR, right) and La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left).

With three months to go before the election, there's still everything to play for. Let's not fuel the dangerous idea that it is merely a mid-term formality, a vote to punish the government – to the benefit of the RN, which would have only the 2027 presidential election in its sights. Our survey reveals that, despite the RN's historic rise, French affinity to the European project has not decreased: 73% of French people say they are in favor of it. Among 18-to-24-year-olds, this score rises to 80%, and to 86% among farmers, who – of all the socio-professional categories surveyed – are the most attached to the European community project.

Admittedly, a majority of French people surveyed (54%) disagree with the way this project is being implemented today, but they do not question its existence. There has even been a 4-point increase in its staunchest supporters since the last election. This attachment is often linked to French people's ability to enjoy the benefits of the European Union (EU) in terms of their lifestyle or income: 66% of households with the lowest incomes are in favor of the European project, rising to over 85% among the most affluent.

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