A brilliant year followed by a sudden downturn. In 2023, the automotive market recovered, making up for some of the sales lost due to the Covid-19 pandemic and production stoppages linked to the semiconductor shortage, but ended December in the red. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, registrations rose by 13.9% in Europe over the full year compared with 2022, passing the 10 million mark. This included 15% electric vehicles, compared with 9.1% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2019. All countries were up, with the exception of Hungary. Italy (+18.9%), Spain (+16.7 %) and France (+16.1%) stood out with double-digit increases. Germany ran out of steam, with a growth of 7.3%.
"The catch-up is clear, but still too modest to make up for the Covid trough," said Jamel Taganza, partner at Inovev, a firm specializing in automotive market analysis. At 10.5 million registrations in the European Union, it's still a long way from 2019's 15.3 million. "In view of soaring car prices and uncertainties about technology, there's nothing to say we'll ever get back to that level," said the expert.
Especially as the market has turned around after 16 months of growth, declining by 3.3% in December 2023 compared with December 2022. The reversal – which didn't happen in France or Italy – was spectacular in Germany (-23%) after the end of subsidies for electric vehicles under budgetary constraints. What lessons can we draw for 2024? The market will be stable, predicts adviser Alix Partners, which expects growth of around 1% a year until 2027. The proportion of all-electric vehicles is predicted to rise from 15 to 25%, while combustion engines are expected to regress from 60% to 31%, with hybrid powertrains driving sales.
What share of this sluggish market will Chinese manufacturers take? This is the big question of the moment. "If BYD manages to open a factory in Europe at the same speed as Tesla, it will take three years to see it arrive en masse," said Alexandre Marian, director general of Alix Partners. "At CES in Las Vegas [the electronics show where automotive groups unveil their new products], it was Chinese cars that served as demonstrators for the innovations of the major equipment manufacturers," he said, a sign that they are continuing to invest massively. Valeo of France and Beyond of the US, two specialists in Lidars - intelligent radars that facilitate driving - had a Zeekr, Geely's top-of-the-range brand, and a Nio, respectively, on their stands.
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