The rift between Europe and the United States is deep and historic. Even before the battle over tariffs, the Trump storm has swept across the Old Continent, and the damage is considerable. It was on full display from February 14 to 16 at the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering of the Western political, diplomatic and defense establishment. Three days that shook the transatlantic relationship, a pillar of the international system since WWII.
There was, of course, the shock of the openly authoritarian and hostile speech delivered by American Vice President JD Vance, which was marked with the ideological MAGA stamp. His far-right discourse accused European democratic practices of restricting freedom and compared European political leaders to Soviet political commissars. Then, there was the inadmissible interference of a supposedly allied power in an election campaign in Germany, where the US vice president lent his support to the candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party while refusing to meet with the chancellor.
There's also the uncertainty over the fate of Ukraine and its aggressor, Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the hands of a US president in a hurry to make peace so he can extricate himself from Europe and focus on his rivalry with China. Can the US and Europe work together to achieve a "just and lasting" peace in Ukraine, while at the same time waging an ideological war?
Rhetoric of truth
This is a critical issue for the future of Europe. It is belatedly realizing that it is trapped by its security dependence on an ally that behaves more like an adversary than a friend. In Munich, the shock imposed by the Trump administration in an appalling climate raised awareness of the inadequacy of the resources allocated to defense. A rhetoric of truth is emerging, notably among German leaders, on the need to educate the public about defense budget increase.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty about the Trump team's intentions, Europe's economic and military support for Ukraine must remain the priority, so that it is in a position of strength when negotiations begin. Similarly, Ukraine must be kept on the path to the European Union and, ultimately, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Meeting these goals requires massive financial commitments to sustain the defense effort. Europe must keep joint borrowing on the table, despite Germany's resistance, and consider fully using frozen Russian assets, rather than just their interest, to fund Ukraine.
Unanticipated, the prospect of losing US protection is potentially devastating for Europe's unity. On the contrary, it calls for a leap of faith, the first act of which could be the emergency summit meeting to be held in Paris on Monday, February 17. Getting Washington to renounce complete disengagement from Europe presupposes that Europe is willing and able to invest in its own defense. In Munich, Europe's blindness came to an abrupt end. From now on, the security of the continent depends essentially on Europe itself, and its ability to maintain cohesion.