With less than two weeks to go before Tunisia's presidential election on October 6, the European Union (EU) is still struggling to formulate a coherent position vis-à-vis Tunis and its current president, Kais Saied, the race's overwhelming favorite. And for good reason: Saied has gradually eliminated all political opposition. Only two candidates, one of whom is imprisoned, have been authorized to run.
In light of this democratic backslide, Brussels is considering the best attitude to adopt towards Tunis in a report drafted by the EU diplomatic service and sent to the 27 foreign affairs ministers on July 7, which Le Monde has now obtained.
The authors observe that "EU-Tunisia relations have become more complex" but that the EU "continues to have a keen interest in preserving its partnership with Tunisia in order to ensure the country’s stability (including socio-economic stability), promote respect for human rights, continue effective cooperation on migration management and maintain its anchoring with Europe."
But the document's authors also acknowledge that achieving this "will entail striking an increasingly difficult balance between the EU’s credibility in terms of values and its interest in staying constructively engaged with the Tunisian authorities." This state of limbo will leave many players, both in EU institutions and among human rights defenders, wondering what to do.
Since July 2021, President Saied, who was elected in 2019, has steadily consolidated power into his own hands, gradually eliminating all institutional checks and balances and further diminishing the role of civil society. Since 2023, "the democratic space has shrunk considerably owing to arrests of key opposition figures... and other factors, such as marginalization of political parties through the reform of the electoral law."
At the same time, "freedom of expression has been severely curtailed," and the government is planning legal reforms that will further restrict organizations' autonomy, activities and access to foreign funding.
The document also highlights Tunisia's perilous economic situation: "There is no clear or publicly debated economic strategy in sight. However, Tunisia is not expected to default on its external debt in the short term."
Furthermore, the report warns that "the treatment of migrants, asylum seekers and refugees is of growing concern." In 2023, the European Commission signed a €1 billion memorandum of understanding with Tunis that was aimed at reducing migrant departures from Tunisia to Europe.
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