A genuine race has begun between the European Commission, which, under pressure from Berlin, hopes to sign a free-trade agreement with the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) by the end of the year, and France, which is organizing resistance on all fronts. This isn't the first time that an agreement on this trade deal seems within reach. Yet Paris knows that its influence on the European stage has been weakened since President Emmanuel Macron's dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale backfired, and more than ever fears that it will be sacrificed on the altar of Germany's interests.

This week, the Commission's teams were in Brazil to continue talks with their South American counterparts, in the hope that the deal could finally be concluded, with great fanfare, at the Mercosur summit, set to be held in Montevideo, the Uruguayan capital, from December 6 to 8.

Paris, for its part, put on a show of strength at the Assemblée Nationale on Tuesday, November 26. Indeed, an overwhelming majority of lawmakers voted against the prospect of this trade treaty, which the European Union's executive branch has been negotiating on behalf of its 27 member states for over 25 years. The message to Brussels was clear: If the EU were to sign on with Mercosur, it would run the risk of fuelling all kinds of populism in France, and giving far-right leader Marine Le Pen new arguments.

At a time of great governmental instability, with Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN, far-right) party lying in ambush, Macron is determined to avoid such a scenario at all costs. The president has insisted that "as it stands" the text of the agreement is "unacceptable," and that it must include an obligation to respect the Paris Climate Agreement, bans on deforestation and mirror clauses. "This type of agreement feeds the eurosceptic vote everywhere, not just in France," agreed Benjamin Haddad, junior European affairs minister.

Thus far, this argument has not been enough to sway EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Negotiations on the agreement with Mercosur are in "the final stretch," even if "the devil is always in the details," she said, on Sunday, November 17.

Usually, free-trade agreements have to be unanimously adopted by the 27 member states before being ratified by all of the union's national parliaments. As free trade is increasingly falling out of favor in Europe, this is a difficult process that no trade agreement has the slightest chance of succeeding at getting through. Against this backdrop, the Commission has opted for an alternative legal basis, which would enable it to have a potential Mercosur agreement approved through the support of a qualified majority of member states and a vote in the European Parliament.

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