With six weeks to go before the European elections, an opinion poll shows the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) remains entrenched in first place of voting intentions, but behind it, things are moving. A second duel is taking shape between President Emmanuel Macron's coalition and the alliance between the Socialists and Raphaël Glucksmann's small party Place Publique, and undecided voters or those uncertain to vote could still shake up the current trends on the day of the vote, Sunday, 9 June. These are the takeaways from the fourth round of the survey carried out by IPSOS, in partnership with the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), the Institut Montaigne, the Jean Jaurès Foundation and Le Monde.

According to this poll conducted from 19 to 24 April using the quota sampling method among a large sample of 10,651 people representative of the French population registered to vote, aged 18 and over, the RN and its lead candidate Jordan Bardella have improved by 1 percentage point compared to the previous round, in March, reaching 32% of voting intentions (with a margin of error of 1.3 points). Macron's ruling coalition (Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons and UDI) and its lead candidate Valérie Hayer have fallen by one point, down to 17% (margin of error: 1.1 points), while Glucksmann's PS-Place Publique is coming closer and closer to second place.

Glucksmann has gained 2.5 percentage points since March and climbs to 14% of voting intentions (margin of error: 1 point), driven in particular by transfers of votes from Renaissance, the Greens, La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left) and the Communists. Behind the top trio, LFI, led by Manon Aubry, remains stable, at 7% of voting intentions (margin of error: 0.7), followed by the Greens led by Marie Toussaint at 6.5%, down two points compared to March (margin of error: 0.7).

On the right, François-Xavier Bellamy's Les Républicains list remains almost stable at 6.5%, followed by the far-right Reconquête! campaign led by Marion Maréchal at 5.5%, but the gap between them is narrowing compared to previous waves. The Communists, led by Léon Deffontaines, stand at 2.5%, down 1 point compared to March. They are perhaps weakened by the proliferation of small far-left campaigns. The New Anti-Capitalist Party (NPA), or at least a branch of the NPA that emerged from a split in December 2022, led by Selma Labib, registers 1% of voting intentions in our survey. Meanwhile, another Trotskyist party, Lutte Ouvrière, led by Nathalie Arthaud, is credited with 0.5% of voting intentions.

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