The devastation caused by the low-profile war waged since October 8 by the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah and the Israeli army along the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel is already substantial. Over 26,000 Lebanese have fled the Israeli bombardments of southern Lebanon, which has claimed 11 civilian lives in addition to the 82 Hezbollah and Palestinian faction fighters killed in Lebanon and Syria. The olive harvest, an essential source of income for the inhabitants, has been ruined. Some 40,000 olive trees were decimated in fires caused by Israeli fire, which devastated more than 460 hectares of farmland and forests.

Southern Lebanon is hanging by a thread. The gradual escalation since the end of October has extended the firing zone beyond a strip 5 kilometers deep on either side of the border. The intensity of the fighting is such that the south of the country regularly comes under fire from more than 30 shots from the Israelis a day. Hezbollah and the Israeli army, and even the Party of God's sponsor Iran send messages to Western and Arab diplomats. In these messages, they assure everyone that they have no interest in an all-out war. But as long as the conflict in the Gaza Strip continues, both Lebanon and Israel are getting close to all-out war, with the risk of one provocation too many, or an accident.

"Neither actor wants to be the first to start a conflict, but everyone is ready. The red lines are blurred. It's not a question of the number of shots fired or deaths, but of perception. And even before these red lines, it would only take a rocket falling on an inhabited village in Israel or a Qana-type scenario in 1996 [106 displaced Lebanese were killed when the Israelis fired on a peacekeepers' camp] to pave the way for a major escalation," said a Western military source.

The prospect of a deadly incident is of particular concern to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), whose bases and 10,000 soldiers are caught in the middle of the firefight. "Hezbollah is playing with fire by firing increasingly closer to UN bases, at the risk of provoking a deadly Israeli response," continued this source. UNIFIL has been hit several times since October 8, and a peacekeeper was wounded. The balance of deterrence established after the 2006 war is no longer in place, even if fighting is still limited to a level acceptable to both Hezbollah and Israel.

This fragile equilibrium was almost shattered over the past two weeks. In a speech on November 11, Hezbollah's leader justified his movement's escalation and promised that the front would remain open as long as the Gaza war continued. On November 5, Hassan Nasrallah carried out previous threats by firing on civilian targets in the town of Kiryat Shmona. One civilian was killed and several others wounded in Israel. This was in retaliation for the death in an Israeli strike of a grandmother and her three granddaughters who were fleeing southern Lebanon by car.

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