A new wind is blowing across Turkey. A gentle breeze that was barely perceptible at first, but which has finally taken the country by surprise. The mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, who was re-elected on Sunday, March 31, by a margin of more than a million votes over his opponent from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), had called it "the breeze from the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara" on the eve of the election. He concluded by describing it as "the one that will grab you by the throat when you wake up on Monday morning, April 1; and which, when you take a breath, will make you feel democracy, the republic and freedom deep within you."

Whether these words were prophetic or not, they were certainly political and powerful. And they showed, in their own way, just how much Sunday's election, which turned out to be Erdogan's worst setback since his party first came to power in 2002, caused many more surprises than expected. The election night has unleashed a shockwave that has set the country on a new course.

The results are clear: For the first time since its creation, the AKP is no longer the country's leading party, but its second largest. On the contrary, its historic rival and opponent, the nationalist Republican People's Party (CHP), is back in the top spot for the first time since 1977, a position it will have to learn to manage.

Dozens of cities and districts have swung its way – far more than its own leaders had anticipated. In Ankara alone, the party won 16 of the 25 electoral districts. Its candidate for the mayorship of the metropolis, incumbent mayor Mansur Yavas, was up 10 points compared with the 2019 municipal elections. In Istanbul, CHP candidates running alongside Imamoglu won 26 out of 39 districts, up by 12 districts. In Izmir, the party's traditional stronghold, they won 28 out of 30 districts, despite widespread criticism of the party leadership's choice to impose certain candidates. Throughout the country, the CHP has expanded beyond its traditional west coast base; particularly in cities in the heart of Anatolia and on the Black Sea coast, an AKP stronghold.

As of Monday, 64% of the Turkish population is governed by CHP mayors, representing 80% of the country's economy. By comparison, AKP municipal leaders will govern 23% of the population. Those of the pro-Kurdish DEM party (formerly the HDP, Peoples' Democratic Party) account for close to 7%. The remaining 6% are divided between the far-right MHP (Nationalist Movement Party), a member of Erdogan's governing coalition; and the far-right Islamist Yeniden Refah (New Welfare Party, YRP), a former AKP ally.

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