There are events in history that are both surprising and foreseeable. Such was the case with the Hamas attack on Israeli settlements in the "Gaza envelope". It was surprising in terms of its timing, the unprecedented scale and audacity of the operation and the devastation it caused, as well as, on the Israeli side, the complete negligence of military and civilian intelligence (Shin Beth) and the initial disarray of the defense forces.

Nightmare scenes, with militants on pickup trucks armed with automatic rifles, Islamic State-style, crossing a formidable barrier erected at a cost of billions and fitted with the latest technological sensors; Armed terrorists who marched for an hour, encountering no one in their path, to take over towns and kibbutzes; Men, women and children killed at close range in the street or in their homes, taken hostage by the dozens and taken to the other side of the border, exhibited on social networks; Men, women and children shot at point-blank range in the street or in their homes, taken hostage by the dozen and transported across the border, where social networks show them paraded, beaten and insulted; Families suffocating in their shelters, their desperate cries for help echoing on the radio; A Gazan radio reporter broadcasting live (!) from the courtyard of a building where the terrorists are operating; And, when the army finally arrived, fierce fighting street by street, house by house, all day, night and into the next day...

Surprising, yes. After all, how could the most powerful army in the region, assuredly one of the most powerful in the world, how could such an efficient secret service, capable of locating a terrorist leader on the third floor to the left of a building with thirty floors, fail to anticipate and prevent the attack?

Now let's discuss the latter term: Foreseeable. After all, what we have just witnessed is not a decree from heaven. It is the result of a combination of two factors, a fanatical Islamist organization whose declared aim is the destruction of Israel; and an idiotic Israeli policy that successive governments have clung to, with the latest one bringing it to a head.

Over the years, a balance of power developed between Israel and Hamas, in which the latter came to hold what might be called a right of initiative. It was Hamas that decided the intensity of the flames, in accordance with the evolution of its own interests. So, for example, when Qatar, its financial backer, was not sufficiently generous, or not quick enough for its liking, all it took was a salvo of rockets to drag Israel into a spiral of destruction that would leave its inhabitants bruised and battered. But Hamas got what it wanted at the price of a – necessarily – short-lived ceasefire.

You have 57.66% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.