Until recently, I was dead set against an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Like almost all my fellow Israelis, I was convinced that the pressure should not be released until the two declared major war aims had been achieved: the destruction of Hamas and the release of the hostages. I'm not so sure any more and here's why.

First of all, the military aspect. The IDF has dealt Hamas a heavy blow. In the north and center of Gazan territory, its territorial formations, brigades and battalions have been destroyed, and the third phase of military deployment is now focusing on targeted attacks. In the south, at Khan Yunis, the campaign continues in full force. But the war is getting bogged down. Even where the bulk of Hamas's military apparatus has been demolished, terrorist cells remain.

Despite the daily discovery and destruction of dozens of tunnels, the underground infrastructure, far more extensive and complex than previously thought – estimated at some 400 kilometers but now thought to be over 700 – remains operational. At this rate, it would take many months to complete the job. So the question arises: what would victory look like? The surrender of Hamas? Unthinkable. The head of Yahya Sinwar [Hamas leader] and his acolytes? This is obviously one of the objectives being actively pursued. But, let alone locating him in the maze of Khan Yunis tunnels (assuming he hasn't moved to Rafah, on the Egyptian border), he is likely to be surrounded by the human shields of 130 Israeli hostages, which would be a nightmare. These two major war aims (the destruction of Hamas and the release of the hostages) are now clearly contradictory.

A catastrophic strategic situation

In short, the war seems to have exhausted its effects in purely military terms. In an interview with Israel's second TV channel on January 18, which caused quite a stir at home and abroad, Gadi Eizenkot, former chief of staff and member of the war cabinet, whose son and nephew were killed in battle in Gaza in early December 2023, claimed that "whoever speaks about the absolute defeat [of Hamas] … is not speaking the truth.... That is why we should not tell tall tales… Today the situation already in the Gaza Strip is that the goals of the war have not yet been achieved." He went on to call for early elections to give the country a direction in which the people can once again have confidence.

This is because there is no such thing as a "purely military plan." The hostage issue brings home an inescapable truth: In any war, the military aspect is only one of many. War is always "the continuation of politics by other means" (in the famous words of Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz [1780-1831]). This is especially true in the case of so-called asymmetrical conflicts such as this one. The disparity in power can be enormous, and the fate of conflicts is not decided solely on the battlefield. Does it need to be pointed out that the Vietcong's Tet Offensive failed against the Americans, and that the French won the Battle of Algiers?

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