El Niño, the enfant terrible of the Pacific, is on its way out, but the world may not have much respite. The natural phenomenon, which has caused global temperatures to rise and fueled numerous extreme events around the world in 2023 and 2024, is nearing its end, according to a bulletin from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published on Monday, June 3. However, its impact will continue for several more months. And while it is likely that a La Niña episode will replace it later this year, this inverse phenomenon is unlikely to cause the temperature to drop much, given that global warming is keeping the planet in an overheated state.

El Niño and La Niña follow one another in a cycle known as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which causes the most significant natural variations in the climate system on a seasonal and annual scale. The first, ENSO's warm phase, is associated with the warming of the equatorial Pacific, pulling up global temperatures. The second, the cold phase, leads to cooling. These two sides of the same coin usually last between nine months and a year, and occur irregularly every two to seven years.

"The end of El Niño does not mean a pause, in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett in a statement. "Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during next months." The last nine years have been the warmest on record, despite the cooling influence of a La Niña episode that lasted for three consecutive years (2020-2021-2022), a rare event.

El Niño, which officially began in June 2023, reached its peak in December of the same year – it takes its name, which refers to the Christ Child, from its peak happening around December – and continued until May 2024. It was one of the five strongest on record, according to the WMO, although less intense than the super El-Niños of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.

This episode contributed to the exceptional rise in temperatures in 2023. That year was by far the hottest on record, exceeding the previous record of 2016 by a colossal 0.16°C. Average global surface temperatures exceeded those of the pre-industrial era by 1.45°C, a symbol as the Paris climate agreement aimed to contain warming to 1.5°C. At its peak, each El Niño generally results in global warming of around 0.25°C. This impact is down to the fact that the tropical Pacific accounts for a quarter of the planet's surface. Scientists remain divided, however, on the exact role played by this El Niño in the unprecedented warming observed in 2023.

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