In August 1989, in a Colombia that had declared war on Pablo Escobar, mafia-bashing presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galan was assassinated. In August 2023, in Ecuador, candidate Fernando Villavicencio was killed in the street in Quito, on the eve of early general elections. "Ecuador is going through what Colombia went through in the '80s, and Mexico went through in the '90s. Our country has been handed over to drug trafficking, and these are the consequences," declared former vice-president and presidential candidate Otto Sonnenholzner (right), the day after Villavicencio's murder. Former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) stated that "Ecuador has become a failed state."

Surprisingly, Ecuador doesn't produce any drugs itself. Cocaine arrives from Colombia and Peru by land, and it is transported by sea to North America, Europe and Asia. A transit territory for 40 years, the country has become a money-laundering center thanks to the dollarization of its economy. In turn, it is paying the price for the global failure of the fight against drugs.

For a long time, Ecuador saw itself as a peace haven in a turbulent neighborhood. "Unstable, yes, but peaceful," summed up political scientist Mauricio Jaramillo. At the turn of the millennium, three elected presidents (Abdala Bucaram in 1997, Jamil Mahuad in 2000 and Lucio Guttiérez in 2005) were ousted by the people, without bloodshed. Socialist ex-president Rafael Correa came into power in 2007, adopted a new constitution in 2008 and, thanks to an unprecedented oil windfall, funded infrastructure and social policies. The country regained its stability and Correa took credit for having improved the country's standing. But six years after his departure, his charismatic, arrogant and authoritarian personality and his disputed record continue to fracture the political landscape. As one undecided voter summed up in mid-August: "Under Correa, health, education and roads have improved. So have attacks on freedoms, debt and corruption."

Condemned by a justice system that his supporters criticized and exiled in Belgium, Correa remains very present on the political scene. His candidate, Luisa Gonzalez, came first in the first round of the presidential election on August 20, with 33.5% of the vote. But Gonzalez's victory in the second round on October 15 is not guaranteed. The young entrepreneur Daniel Noboa (23.5%), son of one of the country's biggest fortunes, who is playing the outsider role, could capture the votes of all the "anti-Correistas."

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