Through the deployment of several monetary measures and benefits, particularly for the care of young children, family policies aim to support and accompany those who choose to become parents. But what impact do they have on the decision to have children? During his January 16 press conference, Emmanuel Macron discussed the possibility of introducing birth leave to encourage "demographic rearmament." However, Hélène Périvier, an economist at Science Po's French Observatory of Economic Cycles and who also chairs the family council within the High Council for Family, Childhood and Aging (a body that reports to the prime minister), doubts that this is enough to revive the birth rate, which has been falling since 2011.
It is very difficult to identify the specific effect of a public policy on fertility decisions because these are multidimensional decisions. In order to assess the effect of a single policy, it is necessary to be able to isolate its effects from those linked to the economic and social context in which it is implemented. The few evaluation studies that have been carried out – on the reform of the parental leave allowance or the modification of the family tax-free allowance – show that the effects are generally weak, where they do exist at all.
With regard to the 2015 reform of the shared child-rearing benefit, which reduced the duration of parental leave to 24 months, we have shown that this had no initial effect on fertility choices.
Family policy has undergone significant change over the last 30 years. The trend in France, and more broadly in Europe, is toward policies designed to reconcile work and family life. This means limiting benefits paid to parents and investing in public services such as childcare. In France, we're talking about public childcare services, on which the Conseil de la Famille [High Council for Family] produced several reports in 2023.
Countries with generous policies are also those with higher fertility rates. Let's not forget that, even today, women manage the lion's share of family tasks. The question of gender equality is central to the design of family policies for the coordination of life stages. Parental leave is part of this vision: when it is short and well-paid, and fathers are encouraged to take it, it enables women to have a career and children at the same time.
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