In its 18th package of sanctions against Russia, announced on July 18, the European Union introduced two measures targeting Russian oil exports. First, it lowered the authorized price cap for Russian crude oil purchases, which was now set at 15% below the market price. This supposedly more "dynamic" sanction mechanism replaces a previous cap of $60 (€51) per barrel. In addition, the EU added 100 more ships to its list of vessels banned from entering ports and locks, in a move aimed at curbing the so-called "shadow fleet" of tankers that secretly export Russian crude oil.
What impact could these new measures have? Dmitry Nekrasov, an economist, entrepreneur and expert at the Center for Analysis and Strategy in Europe (CASE), which he co-founded, shares his insights. Nekrasov, a former adviser to Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev (2008-2012), later joined the Russian opposition coordination council and was ultimately forced to emigrate to Cyprus. He has been highly critical of the sanctions' real effectiveness on the Russian economy. According to his estimate, only 2,000 out of 15,000 sanctions measures have achieved their intended goal.
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