The phone still hasn't rung. Even Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has distanced himself from the American president's claim that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had called the White House. The Chinese leader has held firm after responding to Trump's tariffs almost tit-for-tat by imposing 125% customs duties on products entering China from the United States – compared to 145% for goods going in the opposite direction – and blocking the export of certain strategic rare earth elements. For Xi, yielding to Trump is out of the question: Rather, the patient strategist has waited for concessions from the volatile billionaire, who has touted his maximalist positions in interviews, yet also found them difficult to stick to.

Is the breaking point approaching? "At some point, I'm going to lower [the tariffs], because otherwise you could never do business with them. They want to do business very much," said Trump, in an interview with NBC on Sunday, May 4, as if to prepare an about-face to make his retreat go down better.

The Chinese president did not choose this trade war. Trump imposed it when he realized, on April 9, given the weakened and jittery states of markets, that it was better to drop his tariffs against most countries and solely focus on China, whose status as a rival is a consensus issue in US politics.

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