Their exit is intended to be as discreet as possible. Faced with growing public opposition spurred by the coup's instigators in Niamey, the French general staff seeks to avoid any incidents and prevent a recurrence of the "Barkhane" convoy incident in Téra, western Niger, where three protesters against French military presence were killed in November 2021.
As the Niger junta prohibited the French army from using the road to the Benin border, the soldiers and their equipment have been going through Chad since their evacuation officially began on Tuesday, October 10. Due to Paris' near complete silence on the matter, the most precise information available on the arrangements came from Niamey. In a statement read out on national television on Tuesday evening, the Nigerien military said that "three special flights" had been recorded at the capital's airport, two for the withdrawal of "97 special forces elements" and one "dedicated to logistics."
"The troops stationed in Ouallam [west] left their base today," said the junta. "These are the operations for the departure of the first ground convoy bound for Chad, under the escort of our defense and security forces." The journey will be a long one: 1,700 kilometers separate Niamey from N'Djamena.
General Daoud Yaya Brahim, Chad's minister of defense, provided few details regarding these newcomers on its land, citing "military secrecy" while pointing out that "France has never asked us to host these soldiers" and that France is "a long-standing and reliable partner whose cooperation is based on a mutually beneficial bilateral agreement."
Under the terms of this agreement and at the request of the Chadian authorities, some 1,000 French soldiers are currently stationed at the N'Djamena air base, with two additional outposts at Abéché and Faya-Largeau, according to the French Ministry of the Armed Forces. Their official mission is to train and educate the Chadian army, but French air support and intelligence sharing have repeatedly proved decisive in N'Djamena's fight against rebel groups scattered across the borders of its vast territory.
While Presidents Emmanuel Macron and Mahamat Idriss Déby appear to be on good terms, public opinion in Chad is increasingly divided. Since the announcement of the French withdrawal to Niger, a communiqué has been circulating on social media opposing the "relocation to Chad of the expelled French forces" and demanding that those already stationed in the country leave within three months. Its authors, from the diaspora, civil society and minority opposition parties, said they were inspired by "the retreat of imperialist forces in the face of the will of patriotic Nigeriens, Burkinabés and Malians."
While the communiqué's origin is unknown, and some of the signatories claim that their names were added without their agreement, the vehemence of its tone is revealing. "Our sovereignty has never been complete because of the almost continuous presence of the French army after the independence," explained the political scientist Evariste Toldé, who signed the text. "Chad is the country that has seen the greatest number of French army operations on its soil since colonization. Consequently, it interferes in its politics by choosing whether or not to intervene against rebels when they threaten the regime."
In 2019, for example, the French air force carried out strikes against a column of insurgents from Libya, saving its staunch ally Idriss Déby Itno, whose intervention in Mali in 2013 had provided an invaluable source of support for the "Serval" operation. In April 2021, after 30 years of authoritarian rule, the Chadian president died on the front, leaving his son Mahamat to succeed him, in violation of all constitutional provisions. President Macron was the only Western head of state to attend his funeral. His presence and speech about "France [which] will not let anybody put into question or threaten today or tomorrow Chad's stability and territorial integrity" marked the population as tacit approval of a coup d'état, according to the country's political opponents.
"Unlike in West Africa, the French army is not accused of being responsible for the deteriorating security situation but of supporting the current regime. It is seen as an obstacle to political change," explained Remadji Hoinathy, a researcher at the Institut D'études de Sécurité (Institute for Security Studies, ISS).
On May 14, 2022, the opposition coalition Wakit Tama ("it's time," in Chadian Arabic) organized a demonstration against the French presence, during which Total gas stations were vandalized. "We were overwhelmed by its scale," admitted Adoum Soumaine, the protest's spokesman. "The slogan 'France dégage' [France, get out] rose spontaneously in the crowd." Six Wakit Tama leaders were arrested and given suspended prison sentences in the wake of the demonstration. But for Soumaine, "the withdrawal of the French troops is inevitable."
Incidents involving the French army regularly fuel rumors and wild speculations on Chadian social media. In April, as inter-community clashes spread bloodshed in the country's south, a column of French military engineers that had crossed the region a few days earlier to help renovate a border post was immediately accused of having been involved. In June, French soldiers on a reconnaissance mission near the Sudanese border in support of refugees were briefly arrested by a Chadian officer. The latter was degraded and disbarred from the army before the defense minister issued a public apology to France.
Three months later, a French soldier shot and killed a Chadian soldier who attacked him with a knife in Faya-Largeau. Local residents who had come out to voice their anger were dispersed, and a national councilor was imprisoned for having condemned the affair. "The government always takes up the cause of the French military," insisted Evariste Toldé. "Paris should not underestimate these weak signals," warned Hoinathy.
The justification for France's military presence in Chad has been particularly contested, given that the "Barkhane" operation, whose operation center was located in N'Djamena, officially ended in November 2022. Chad, which is geographically remote from the areas where the fight against jihadist groups operating in the Sahel is being waged – except for Boko Haram and its offshoots in Nigeria, and even more so since the break with Niamey, is no longer a place from which the French army can project its influence.
This raises the question of maintaining the contingent stationed there. "Faced with the presence of Russian mercenaries in neighboring countries in the throes of conflict [Sudan, Libya, Central African Republic] and to protect our nationals, it is useful to maintain our projection capability in a region beset by instability," said a French non-commissioned officer returning from N'Djamena.
Within the French general staff, however, the possibility of a withdrawal or a reduction in troops has not been ruled out, in line with the reorganization of the military presence in Africa announced by Macron in February that was upended by subsequent events. Paris might be tempted to anticipate a potential reversal of the situation in Chad and thus avoid the humiliation of another forced withdrawal.
Indeed, the Chadian government might decide to rally public opinion hostile to the French military presence. "It's a card it can play in the face of criticism for its lack of democracy or respect for human rights," said a close observer of Chadian political life. It would also be an easy way for President Mahamat Idriss Déby to score points with public opinion and make up for his lack of democratic legitimacy. In this scenario, "France could be a collateral victim," concluded our source.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.