"In many ways, I think the fate of our planet depends on American voters." With this sentence, which she admitted "may seem hyperbolic," Ariel Moger, political affairs director for Friends of the Earth in the US, reflected the concern of many climate observers just a few days before the US presidential election on November 5.
At a time when the window for hoping to limit global warming to +1.5°C is closing, the actions of the US, the world's leading oil producer, second largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the biggest polluter in history, will weigh heavily in the balance. A vote in favor of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will affect not only American climate policy, but also the worldwide fight against global warming, as the two candidates are so opposed on this issue.
The former US president makes no secret of his absolute rejection of environmentalism. For years, he has made numerous climate-skeptical statements, calling global warming a "hoax" or a concept "created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive." During his term (2017-2021), he repealed more than 100 environmental rules from the presidency of his predecessor, Barack Obama, and he withdrew the country from the Paris climate agreement. The US rejoined it in 2021, upon the inauguration of Joe Biden.
This time, the Republican wants to go further. If elected, he plans to roll back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed under President Biden. This massive program to support the energy transition is the biggest climate bill ever passed in the history of the US. The candidate wants to "terminate" this "green new scam," as he describes it, and more specifically end subsidies for renewable energy production and electric cars, even though Tesla CEO Elon Musk is one of his most fervent supporters. Instead, Donald Trump's leitmotif, backed by the oil companies, is "Drill, baby drill!" and he intends to massively boost oil and gas production – "the liquid gold under our feet" – while continuing to burn coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels.
In reality, Trump won't be able to stop the American energy transition, which is well underway thanks to the very competitive cost of renewables. "It's highly unlikely that he'll be able to pass a new law to roll back the IRA, as a lot of investment has already been made, jobs created and the majority of the money has gone to Republican states," explained Frances Colón, director for international policy at the Center for American Progress, a think tank founded by Democrat John Podesta.
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