It will all begin on November 5. Never has the aftermath of a presidential election in the United States generated so much worry in the run-up. While the outcome of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains uncertain, one prediction has everyone in agreement. In the event of defeat, the former president's camp has prepared an unprecedented operation to contest the results. We know what to expect: A hasty and unfounded proclamation of the Republican's victory, possible local blockades by his supporters of the certification of results, multi-pronged guerrilla judicial warfare and even violence caused by isolated groups or individuals. The nightmare would not be a great centralized "January 6," like the assault on the Capitol in 2021, but a proliferation of small "January 6s."

There is one difference from this gloomy precedent. The arrest of almost 1,300 people for the 2021 assault and the sometimes heavy prison sentences handed down to armed militias, such as the Oath Keepers or the Proud Boys, had a certain deterrent effect. What's more, federal and local authorities are ready, this time. These worst-case scenarios have prompted exceptional security measures to protect local election commissions. Streets will be closed and police patrols stepped up. In some places, such as Maricopa County, Arizona, snipers will be on the roof of the building on November 5. Volunteers in charge of the vote count also have SMS and walkie-talkie alert procedures, in case of disturbances.

Nevertheless, the counting process remains fragile, especially as the rules are not unified across the states. Three researchers from the Brookings Institution think tank, Norman Eisen, Samara Angel and Clare Boone, have identified 50 sensitive counties in the seven swing states. According to them, 11 are considered particularly explosive, in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The first incidents have already begun. On Monday, October 28, two ballot boxes collecting early votes by mail were set on fire in Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington.

One thing is clear: Suspicion is a cancer, eating away at American democracy. It is spreading from platform to microphone, from podcast to website, from rally to social media. In addition to outside interference, such as Russian disinformation operations, it has had a tireless promoter for the past four years: Trump.

His plan to contest the elections, in anticipation of a possible defeat, is mobilizing battalions of lawyers, activists and elected officials. According to the Wall Street Journal on October 24, nearly $140 million (€129 million) has been raised for some 50 organizations. This project is counting on one last strong appeal: the conservative majority (six out of nine justices) on the US Supreme Court. In 2000, the Court ruled in favor of George W. Bush against Democrat Al Gore, after weeks of controversy in Florida, which came down to a few hundred votes.

You have 69.71% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.