Following his victory in the New Hampshire primary, Donald Trump is virtually certain to be the Republican candidate for the presidential election in November, and the polls have him neck and neck with Joe Biden. Could his return to the White House sound the death knell for American democracy? In office between 2017 and 2021, Trump certainly tested its limits. Initially a symptom of the crisis affecting our society, he became a driving force. He deepened the existing divisions between Americans, accelerating the country's dangerous polarization; he lowered the level of public debate through his lies and insults; he disregarded the fundamental rules of democracy, starting with respect for checks and balances. Above all, after losing the last presidential election, he used every means at his disposal to try to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, leading to an insurrection by his supporters on Capitol Hill in Washington on January 6, 2021.
If our democracy nonetheless withstood Trump's first term, it was partly because he arrived at the White House unprepared and surprised – like the rest of us – by his own election. He appointed men and women from the conservative establishment to key positions, who acted as gatekeepers, managing for years to temper his most radical instincts. It was only at the very end of his term, after his election defeat, that he surrounded himself with sycophants prepared to destroy everything to keep him in power. And if we survived that last onslaught, it was thanks to robust institutions, but above all to Republican leaders who proved strong enough to stand up to him, like those who refused to "find 12,000 votes" for him in Georgia, or his hitherto loyal vice president Mike Pence, who refused to invalidate the results.
This time, if Trump is elected, things will be very different. He has spent three years brooding over his resentment and preparing his "revenge." Within a network of well-funded groups, such as the powerful Heritage Foundation, his supporters have honed their agenda and drawn up lists of thousands of potential recruits to replace as many career civil servants. From day one, Trump will be able to start implementing an extremist policy and an all-out assault on the democratic institutions that he believed constrained his power.
'I am your retribution'
Trump has made no secret of his intention to wield the power of the state against his "enemies," as he told the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2023: "I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your retribution." This will begin with bringing to heel the Department of Justice, which oversees the 93 federal prosecutors, reversing an ethical standard established in 1974 in the wake of Watergate.
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