At night, Baku's Olympic Stadium glows, illuminated by walls of LEDs. Between Lake Boyukshor and a large expressway, the stadium lights up the whole neighborhood with messages that run in a loop. "In solidarity for a green world," "Start the action." By day, these slogans and many others can be read everywhere on the huge temporary installations hosting the 29th Conference of the Parties for Climate Change (COP29). In most of the negotiating rooms, the reality of climate diplomacy is far less straightforward. And, day and night, discussions get bogged down.
"Let's cut the theatrics and get down to real business," implored Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, on Monday, November 18. "Yes, there are headwinds, everyone knows that, but lamenting them won't make them go away. Now is the time to focus on solutions."
At the start of the second week, the mood at COP29 oscillates between a wait-and-see attitude and the fear of failure. On November 18, many ministers from 197 countries began arriving on site. It was up to them to start working on the crucial subject of this COP29, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), in other words, the new financing target to be provided to developing countries to help them make a success of their climate transition.
During the first week's technical discussions, the text went from nine to 34 pages, then back down to 25. There are still some 50 options to be decided and as many issues to be cleared up. "As it stands, this text is going nowhere. We've lost seven days," said a European negotiator.
Political leaders will have to deal with a tense geopolitical context as they attempt to find their way through this document full of pitfalls. From the outset, this United Nations conference, which is taking place at a time when several wars are underway (Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon...), has been hit by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's criticism of Western countries; by the departure of Argentine negotiators recalled by their climate-skeptic president, Javier Milei; and, above all, by the turbulence of Donald Trump's election.
A long way from Baku, the future American leader, who once again wants to disengage his country from climate diplomacy, was seen on Saturday evening at a fight organized by the Ultimate Fighting Championship, at Madison Square Garden in New York, in deep discussion with Yasir Al-Rumayyan, president of the Saudi Aramco oil company. "If you look at the geopolitical context that is in the back of everyone's minds, through these negotiations, the context is indeed difficult," summarized Wopke Hoekstra, European commissioner for climate action, on Monday. "I truly believe that, despite the grim geopolitical context, we can and should have a good result by the end of this week."
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