By hosting COP29 from November 11 to 22, Azerbaijan is preparing to undergo a test of its sincerity before an international jury, composed of diplomats and environmental advocates who remain skeptical. Despite facing severe climate risks, this nation of 10 million people has relied on the twin pillars of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea since its independence in 1991. Hydrocarbons alone account for 92% of the country's exports.
This is not the only paradox to emerge in the run-up to the event. Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, sees COP29 as an opportunity to improve the country's image, which suffers from a severely tarnished reputation. The Aliyev family has monopolized power for 31 years, imprisoning opponents and muzzling the media. The country ranks 130th worldwide on the Economist Democracy Index and 164th worldwide out of 180 in the Reporters Without Borders rankings. The forceful restoration of its territorial integrity in 2020 came at the cost of a bloodbath in 2020 and culminated in 2023 with the brutal exodus of 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Despite this troubled history, it was Azerbaijan's enemy, Armenia, that allowed Baku to host COP29. After a long diplomatic tussle behind the scenes of COP28 in Dubai, Yerevan unexpectedly lifted its veto on its rival neighbor's bid at the last minute. Since then, the Azerbaijani government has framed the Baku summit as a "COP of peace" the result of an "unexpected truce" with Yerevan.
Growing water deficit
Environmental issues are nevertheless among the many disputes between the two countries. For several decades, Baku has accused Armenians of deliberately depriving its farmers of significant water resources from the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region. Later, in a far less sincere move, the Azerbaijani government exploited environmental concerns to justify the blockade of 100,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh starting in December 2022. Masquerading as activists protesting the environmental impact of a gold mine, Azerbaijani agents blocked the only road linking the enclave to Armenia for nearly 10 months.
Environmental problems that could not be attributed to Armenia's enemies did not receive the same response from the authorities. In March 2023, when 200 villagers in the central Saatli district protested against severe water shortages in the nearby Kura and Aras rivers, police dealt with the problem by firing rubber bullets into the crowd. Repression has intensified in the run-up to COP29, with a series of 30 arrests of dissidents, journalists and trade unionists in recent months. As a result, there are no longer any independent environmental organizations active in Azerbaijan.
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