Emmanuel Macron will not be attending COP29, despite the major importance of the climate issue for French diplomacy and his personal image. This is the consequence of a steady deterioration in relations between Paris and Baku, which has its origins in France's strong support for Armenia in its territorial dispute with Azerbaijan, and which today leads to mutual accusations of interference in internal affairs.
Baku didn't take kindly to Paris' referral to the UN Security Council in September 2022 and the start of military cooperation with Armenia in October 2023. This involves the delivery of Bastion armored vehicles, three GM200 radars, Mistral 3 anti-aircraft missiles and CAESAR self-propelled guns. The aim is to reconstitute a much-diminished army after the stinging defeat inflicted by Baku in Nagorno-Karabakh, in 2020.
The Azerbaijani president reacted with a virulent anti-French media campaign with "anti-colonial" overtones, aimed at stirring up resentment towards metropolitan France in New Caledonia and the West Indies. Known as the "Baku Initiative Group," this project of influence, coordinated with Russian intelligence services, has, for some months now, been offering highly demonstrative support to all pro-independence movements in overseas territories and to voices hostile to France in Africa.
Outrageous punishment
In December 2023, Azerbaijani justice jailed French businessman Martin Ryan, accusing him of spying for Paris. In 2024, two other Frenchmen, graffiti artist Théo Clerc and businessman Anass Derraz, suffered the wrath of the law in separate cases with political overtones and are currently being held in Azerbaijan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted on September 4 by advising French nationals not to travel to the country "unless there is an imperative reason," due to the "the risk of arbitrary detention and unfair sentencing." At the end of September, Azerbaijani dissident Vidadi Isgandarli was assassinated in Mulhouse, northeastern France. His family and friends are convinced that the murder was ordered by President Ilham Aliyev's regime. An investigation is underway.
Suspected of trying to put pressure on France through arbitrary arrests, the Azerbaijani authorities claim to have tangible evidence to back up their accusations. According to our information, in the case of Ryan, the country's internal intelligence services discovered written exchanges on his telephone with an agent of the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure (DGSE) stationed at the French embassy in Baku. As far as the French secret services were concerned, this dialogue had no clandestine dimension, as the meetings were conducted by a DGSE agent duly registered with the local authorities, as is the case for most members of the secret services deployed in embassies.
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