China is responsible for almost a third of greenhouse gas emissions (31%), is the world's second-largest economy and the leader of the G77, a coalition of 135 developing countries, and it now finds itself at the center of issues at stake at the 28th Conference of the Parties on Climate (COP28) in Dubai. "China is an essential partner, and we won't be able to reach an agreement without it," said French Minister for Energy Transition Agnès Pannier-Runnacher, who is at the forefront of negotiations.
In the COP corridors, the question of the role China is prepared to play, and to what lengths, has come up again and again. Of the heavyweights, Beijing is the most discreet about its intentions. While US special envoy John Kerry has held two lengthy press conferences and European ministers have taken turns in front of the press, China's climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has not appeared in the halls of the Dubai Exhibition Center, where COP28 is taking place.
On Saturday, Xie said, in a closed-door meeting, that he did not rule out the idea of a fossil fuel phase-out. "If we do not resolve this issue, I don't see much chance in having a successful COP28," the veteran of climate diplomacy, his country's chief negotiator at climate conferences since 2009, told Agence France-Presse (AFP). "I think we've already had some progress on this issue and I believe we will have more progress in resolving this very soon in the coming few days."
Xie's statements reassured many supporters of a long-term phase-out of fossil fuel production and consumption. China, the leading power in the developing world, can bring other governments on board, an important aspect of the negotiations. On Saturday, Xie reiterated the need to work "to try to find a language that meets the needs of all parties."
It was a message directed at the richest countries regarding aid that should be provided to the least developed countries. "The G77 is important, but this COP, since it addresses the crucial issue of fossil fuels, is being played out mainly between major actors," cautioned Li Shuo, formerly of Greenpeace China and now a Beijing specialist with the Asia Society Policy Institute. "The agreement will undoubtedly be forged between the United States, China, the European Union and the United Arab Emirates."
Ahead of Dubai, many parties welcomed a meeting at Sunnylands, California, on Wednesday, November 15, at which Kerry and Xie, two leaders who have been attending the same summits for over 20 years, issued a joint declaration. They pledged their support for the development of renewable energies to "accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation."
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