Endless government reshuffles, a deadlock in the Assemblée Nationale, alliances unraveling within and between political parties: France is experiencing a staggering political crisis, one which has left much of society both confused and fed up. Have you lost track of what's happening? Le Monde breaks down how the political situation got to where it is today.
To understand the current crisis, you have to go back to the June 2022 parliamentary elections. Just weeks after his relatively narrow victory over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron's party and its allies failed to win a majority of seats in the Assemblée Nationale.
As a result, his prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, had to govern with the support of only 43% of the Assemblée's members, forcing her to seek temporary alliances, on a case-by-case basis, to pass pieces of legislation. The situation also left her at the mercy of the opposition parties, which could have toppled her government if enough of them came together to support a no-confidence vote. The lack of a clear majority, while it is actually rather common in other European countries, has led to intense parliamentary deadlock in France, largely due to the country's lack of a culture of compromise.
The second turning point came after Macron's camp suffered a crushing defeat in the June 2024 European elections. Macron felt that he needed to act to revitalize his second term, and decided to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale. The snap parliamentary elections that followed resulted in a narrow lead for the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance, gains for Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National party, and left the presidential bloc even further weakened. The Assemblée became more divided than ever before, comprised of three large minority blocs, each of which features diverse political parties that are not always aligned with each other. The situation has made it even harder to compose a stable government backed by a majority of MPs.
After the failure of ex-prime minister Michel Barnier, who was ousted after just three months in office, Bayrou was appointed as prime minister at the end of 2024. From the start, he stressed how serious the country's financial situation was, comparing the mountain of public debt to "a Himalaya." To reduce the public budget deficit, which had ballooned over recent years, on July 15, he proposed an ambitious plan to save €44 billion on the 2026 budget, notably planning to scrap two public holidays. These measures, and the scant talks that followed, sparked fierce criticism from the opposition parties and labor unions.
Bayrou was weakened, and, with citizens calling for nationwide protests on September 10, he knew he risked being ousted by a no-confidence vote in the autumn. He tried to get ahead of the protest movement by calling for a confidence vote, framing it as a vote on whether or not to reduce the debt. On September 8, he lost that vote, forcing him to resign.
To replace Bayrou, Macron chose Lecornu on September 9. A right-wing politician from Normandy, Lecornu, one of Macron's staunchest loyalists, has served in every government under the president since June 2017.
After 26 days of deliberation, Lecornu announced his first cabinet on October 5. Its composition immediately drew criticism from all sides, and it was particularly considered too packed with Macron allies and out of touch with the current balance in Parliament. Even conservative leader Bruno Retailleau, despite having been appointed as interior minister, said the government had failed to deliver "the promised rupture," and suggested that he and his party might leave the government. Just hours later, Lecornu resigned, saying that "the necessary conditions were no longer in place" for him to carry out his duties.
At Macron's request, he nevertheless agreed to conduct new negotiations with the main political parties – excluding the La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left) and Rassemblement National (RN, far-right) parties – which led to him being appointed as prime minister a second time, on October 10.
The new Lecornu government, announced on October 12, is a mix of reinstated ministers and new faces, yet it is based on the same political parties: the president's party, Renaissance; its "central bloc" allies, Horizons and MoDem; and members of the right-wing Les Républicains. The prime minister's current goal is to avoid a no-confidence vote that would remove him from office.
Yet the minority government (backed by 211 members of the Assemblée out of 577, or 37%) now appears shakier than ever: LR is torn apart over whether to take part in the government, while some parties, like Horizons, have threatened to walk out if Lecornu's policies shift too far to the left.
Meanwhile, to avoid being toppled by the Socialists, whose vote is now decisive, Lecornu made concessions on Tuesday, October 14, by announcing that he would forgo using Article 49.3, which allows the government to pass a bill without a vote, and that a contested 2023 pension reform would be suspended until 2027. In the wake of this, Socialist MP Laurent Baumel said that his party's members would not vote for a no-confidence motion in the short term. It is unclear how the governing coalition parties will react to this gesture made to the left.
Three main issues currently divide the political parties:
These deep disagreements, which are normal in a democracy, now dominate the public debate, as many parties have presented them as non-negotiable red lines. As well as fundamental beliefs, certain tactical considerations have also come into play, as political parties and figures look ahead to future elections and seek to avoid being seen as compromised.
There are three main scenarios currently on the table:
- Lecornu avoids losing a no-confidence vote and manages to stay in office, at least long enough to pass a budget bill;
- Lecornu is ousted, prompting Macron to dissolve the Assemblée and call new snap parliamentary elections;
- Macron leaves the Elysée ahead of the end of his term in office, either by resigning or being removed by Parliament, and an early presidential election is held.
Here is where the different parties stand on these issues:
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.