Does François Bayrou still have a chance of making it through the winter as prime minister? According to 89% of users on the American online betting site Polymarket, the answer is no. This evaluation is neither scientific nor certain, and does not predict the future. However, the shift in betting since the beginning of the week reflected a sudden change in perspective among many observers following the announcement by the prime minister on Monday, August 25, that he would submit to a vote of confidence by MPs.

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, a young cryptocurrency enthusiast, Polymarket is, along with its rival Kalshi, one of the leading platforms for betting on the outcomes of current events. Users can wager money and cryptocurrencies on thousands of different topics. Among the most popular at the moment: the name of the future Democratic nominee in the 2028 US presidential election, the next Nobel Peace Prize winner (Donald Trump is given a 10% chance), or the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in 2025 (only 24% consider it likely). The platform takes a commission on every dollar invested.

You have 65.43% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.