The climb may not be quite so steep, but there is no real sign of any descent yet. According to the latest projections in the Global Carbon Budget, a report by the Global Carbon Project collective of 121 scientists and 95 organizations published on Tuesday, December 5, global CO₂ emissions linked to the production and consumption of fossil fuels will be 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (or 36.8 gigatonnes - GtCO₂) in 2023.

This represents an increase of 1.1% on the 2022 figure, and this total was already 1.4% above 2019 levels, just before the temporary dip linked to the global Covid-19 epidemic. And if we take into account the deficit linked to land-use change (deforestation, for example), the result is 40.9 GtCO₂.

Year after year, the greenhouse effect grows stronger. "The 2023 atmospheric CO₂ concentration, averaged over the year, is expected to reach the level of 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level," reported the study, which warns that the most ambitious threshold of the 2015 Paris Agreement could soon be crossed: "If current levels of CO₂ emissions persist, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C with a 50% probability could be exceeded in seven years."

While the 28^th World Climate Conference (COP28) in Dubai is supposed to be about reducing or phasing out fossil fuels, the world's dependence on these fuels is still immense.

In detail, coal-related emissions are expected to rise by 1.1%, oil-related emissions would be up by 1.5% and natural gas-related emissions would grow by 0.5%. Worrying figures given that coal, the fuel most harmful to the atmosphere, still accounts for 41% of the mix (oil 32%, natural gas 21%). The only bright spot in this picture is that CO₂ release is increasing less strongly than in the past: +0.5% over the last decade (2013-2022), below the 2.6% annual growth seen over the previous decade (2003-2012).

"We're in a world where emissions are still rising, but at a slower rate, the worry is that they should be falling," summed up Philippe Ciais, a researcher at the Climate and Environmental Sciences Laboratory and a member of the collective. "It's like when you're driving at 120 km/h and a wall appears in front of you, we should be braking but we're just accelerating slower." The United Nations Environment Programme report, published on November 20, recommended cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 in an attempt to hold warming to +1.5°C.

Not all zones and countries are on the same trajectory. China, for example, is still the worst performer. This country, which accounts for almost a third of global emissions (31%), is still on an upward slope, with + 4% in 2023, due in particular to a worrying use of coal (+ 3.3%). This fuel, which still generates a third of the world's electricity, particularly in developing countries, is at the heart of discussions at COP28. Several countries, including France and the United States, have launched an initiative to accelerate the phase-out of its use.

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