Hurricane Otis, which ravaged Acapulco, Mexico in late October, was upgraded from category 3 to category 5 within 24 hours. In early November, storm Ciaran devastated part of the French coast while also causing damage inland. Even if the number of storms is not increasing, these weather events remind us of the violence of climate change. Our attention is divided by ongoing conflicts, and the communication surrounding climate change further adds to this distraction.
To still be talking about targets for the end of the century is inadequate when we've already entered the era of extreme weather events. Climate change is an immediate issue, not one for the end of the century! The signs of a new climate system are clear. The 1.5°C global warming target no longer makes sense. Current ten-year average global temperatures show that a 1.2°C increase has already been reached.
In late October, average temperatures for the current year were already more than 1.34° Celsius higher than the average temperature of the 20th century, and 1.54° Celsius higher than in the 19th century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the US agency studying hurricanes. A 2°C increase by the mid-century is already a done deal. As we'll observe, the manifestations of climate change are already immensely destructive, yet their escalation won't follow a linear path. What is their current state?
For the oceans stretching between latitudes 60° south and 60° north, the average surface temperature rose by almost 0.25°C compared with the previous year starting in April, even though the oceans' thermal inertia is greater than that of the continents; 0.25°C in just a few months, whereas the difference between 2022 and the 1980s, i.e., almost 40 years, was an average of 0.5°C!
Accelerated ice melt
In the Southern Hemisphere, the ice pack, whose winter surface was stable until recent years, is shrinking sharply in 2023 by almost 10%, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, which specializes in polar and cryospheric research. The ice caps have been melting since 2000 in Greenland and since 2005 in Antarctica. With a current increase of more than 1°C, the melting of the Antarctic ice cap cannot be reversed.
In addition, recent simulations show that the accelerated melting of the West Antarctic appears irreversible in every scenario. This could lead to a rise in sea levels of several meters and a greater intensity of cyclones' wind gusts in many cases.
Since the 2020s, heat waves have been occurring with increasing frequency and sometimes simultaneously, whereas major heatwaves with extreme temperatures used to be the exception on continents (Europe in 2003, Australia in 2007, Russia in 2010) until the beginning of this century. In tropical oceans, successive heat waves are impacting all coral reefs. Since the 2000s, these waves have occurred frequently enough to disrupt these reefs' recovery and regeneration.
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