Suspended tariffs or still in place? Since April 2 – the day Donald Trump launched an unprecedented trade war in recent history – there have been constant contradicting messages from the White House. The clumsy escalation initiated by the American president has only reinforced China's belief that it must minimize its dependence on the United States. Even if the tensions eventually subside, an entirely new dynamic was born, conducive to a decoupling of the world's two largest economies, which previously seemed impossible.
Everyone in China – from top officials to small factory owners – now recognizes the risks posed by exposure to the American market. Since the new tariffs began to take effect, Chinese exporters have been on a quest for new markets to replace American consumers.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's tour of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia demonstrates that Beijing is seeking to strengthen its commercial ties with more reliable partners. The European Union and major emerging countries are also part of this strategy. Brazil, having already surpassed the US as China's leading supplier of agricultural products, falls into this category. This realization is not unique to China. The wall of tariffs erected by Washington is forcing every targeted country to look elsewhere.
Donald Trump is, paradoxically, contributing to the emergence of a world aiming to bypass the US. This significant realignment affects more than just trade. Washington's withdrawal from international organizations and its now-declared disdain for the established international order, historical alliances, and American commitments, such as support for Ukraine against Russia, also fit into this point of view.
Beijing can only be pleased with the abandonment of the American soft power that once targeted it. An example of this is the abrupt closure of Radio Free Asia, which played a central role in informing the Uyghur community. By signaling that they are ready to relinquish – through weariness or fatigue – their central role in world affairs held for decades, the US is creating a void China may be tempted to fill.
Since the beginning of Trump's second term, Beijing, which had already criticized the US's blind support for Israel despite the bloody destruction of Gaza, has been positioning itself as a moral successor. However, if China's new ambitions begin to materialize, they must be considered with caution, even in light of the global crisis created by Trump.
Because Beijing's trade policy, which aims to offload excess production at any cost because its sluggish domestic demand cannot absorb it, continues to threaten jobs in Europe and many other countries. Xi's disastrous human rights record remains a significant obstacle for many democracies, including European ones. Compromises with Beijing will likely be necessary to contain American disorder, but China is hardly in a position to lecture the world.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.