This time, the military exercises lasted just one day, Monday, October 14, and the rhetoric seemed almost routine between the two shores of the Strait. The Chinese army presented them as "stern warnings" against "separatist actions," four days after the first National Day speech by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, elected in January and reviled by Beijing. In return, the latter pledged to "protect a democratic Taiwan and safeguard national security."

Behind what could be taken for symbolic gesticulations having no concrete effect on the daily lives of the Taiwanese, China is advancing in its preparations, should it one day opt for a real invasion of the island, which it claims as one of its provinces. Beijing is stepping up the pressure, as shown by the record 153 Chinese aircraft detected near the island in one day until Tuesday at 6 am, according to Taiwan's Ministry of Defense.

Since 2020, China's air force has multiplied its incursions near the island. First by day, then by day and night, then using fighter and intelligence aircraft, conducting refueling operations, and finally sending in drones. These exercises enable the pilots of the Chinese army, which has no recent combat experience – in stark contrast to American or Russian forces – to perfect their skills in all these areas. And they exhaust the Taiwanese forces, whose fighters have to take off to prepare an interception if these planes don't turn back.

"The ever-increasing frequency of incursions is putting a lot of pressure on aviation. Pilots are tired, there are maintenance issues and aircraft availability is falling. Our defense capability is suffering as a result," noted retired General Chang Yan-ting, former second-in-command of the Taiwanese Air Force. It has just under 150 American F-16 fighters and just under 50 aging Mirage-2000s, making modernization an acute necessity.

China's aircraft include the Y-8, an intelligence – not combat – aircraft with underwater detection capabilities, particularly in the area between southern Taiwan and the northern Philippines, the Bashi Channel. For China, the aim is to gain a better understanding of the area, as well as the circulation of American nuclear submarines in it. In the event of war, they would be the main threat to Chinese vessels.

Chinese President Xi Jinping regularly repeats that he considers it a historic mission for the Chinese Communist Party to take control of the island. Beijing has systematically said that it prefers the political option, but does not rule out the military option as a last resort.

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