There must be something both gratifying and ironic for China when it hears the world's leading power, the United States, calling on it to use its influence with Iran to pressure Yemen's Houthis into stopping their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Despite concerns about China's expanding military might and labeling its foreign policy as "revisionist," the US now seeks more involvement from China in this issue.
During two days of exchanges in Bangkok on January 26 and 27, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan asked China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, to use Beijing's "substantial leverage" with Tehran to get the Houthis to halt their strikes. China has called for "a halt to the harassment and attacks on civilian ships" and stated that the "adding of fuel to the fire of tensions in the Red Sea should be avoided and an increase in the overall security risk of the region should be prevented." However, it is unlikely to get much more involved. It's clear that it will not join the US-led coalition to safeguard the ships, nor will it dispatch its own vessels independently, deeming it more prudent to remain on the sidelines.
Despite the Houthis' pledge in January to not target Russian and Chinese vessels, after having struck a container ship belonging to the company OOCL (based in Hong Kong and therefore Chinese) in December, ongoing missile attacks off Yemen's coast still significantly affect the world's leading exporter. The price of shipping a container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has risen by 169% year-on-year, according to the Drewry's World Container Index. This is due to higher insurance premiums and the two extra weeks needed for ships going from Asia to Europe, now forced to sail via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal. This situation is affecting Chinese deliveries, at a time when domestic consumption is sluggish and factories are seeking to finalize as many deliveries as possible before the Lunar New Year vacation.
Risk aversion
For the time being, the economic consequences are not severe enough to force China to take stronger action. Beijing believes that there are only negatives to getting more directly involved. Raising its voice by explicitly mentioning the Houthis, for example, would affect its relationship with Iran, which arms them. But China's relationship with Iran has so far been in balance with its relationship with Saudi Arabia.
In March 2023, the re-establishment of relations between these two regional powers, announced under Chinese auspices, positioned Beijing as a major leader of a world that would no longer be American-centric. Even though the five necessary rounds of negotiations were held in Iraq and Oman, China reaped the rewards, with all parties involved gaining from the process. Tehran proved that China offered the West another option. Riyadh, which seeks nuclear know-how at all costs, showed that it can turn away from Washington if the latter does not meet its demands. China, on the other hand, gave substance to its "global security initiative," the mantra of its president, Xi Jinping, who advocates dialogue, respect for sovereignty and consideration of everyone's legitimate interests in resolving crises.
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