On Thursday, May 23, China began two days of military drills described as "strong punishment" against Taiwan after the island's new president, Lai Ching-te, pledged at his inauguration to defend its sovereignty and democracy.

These exercises, dubbed "Glaive uni 2024A," represent the first tangible reaction by the People's Republic of China to Lai's speech on Monday. They were meant to serve as "a stern warning" to "separatists," who as Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said "will be left with (...) blood flowing." The use of the letter "A" in the name of this operation has suggested that further demonstrations of force are to be expected in the future.

A map published by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army shows five zones of operation encircling the island, which is de facto independent, yet considered by China to be one of its provinces. Four fainter circles surround the smaller Taiwanese-controlled islands, which are much closer to mainland China, signaling a possible move by Beijing to treat them separately.

Thursday and Friday's maneuvers are the largest that China has staged in a year. They have not, however, appeared to be on the scale of those held following the visit of Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taiwan in August 2022. There was no evidence on Thursday to suggest that China had fired any munitions this time around.

"This military exercise is largely in line with expectations. This feels like a prelude to more and bigger military drills to come. Beijing is making a signal to shape international narratives after new president Lai's speech. But this is only a 'signal.' The real 'punishment' against Taiwan may be yet to come," said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at The Australian National University's Taiwan Studies Program.

The new Taiwanese president, while employing the usual catchphrases about maintaining the status quo, was highly assertive on Monday on the subject of Taiwanese identity. He repeatedly distinguished between "China" and "the Republic of China," and welcomed the heightened presence of the US in the Indo-Pacific. "Lai Ching-te wants to express clearly and openly that China and Taiwan are separate states. Lai's calculation may be that his predecessor's more moderate approach didn't pay off. China still responded with heavy-handed methods," said Amanda Hsiao, China analyst at the think tank Crisis Group.

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