It is an understatement to say that Friedrich Merz's arrival at the head of the German federal chancellery – scheduled for Tuesday, May 6, two and a half months after his victory in the legislative elections – is eagerly awaited by his partners in Europe. The new leadership team in Berlin, resulting from coalition negotiations between Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats of the SPD, is taking office at a time when the European Union faces the greatest strategic and geopolitical uncertainties since the end of the Cold War, 35 years ago.
Merz, 69, has shown that he understands the magnitude of these upheavals, making radical statements – too radical, even, for some of his conservative base – about the deterioration of the transatlantic relationship and the urgency for Europe to take its destiny into its own hands. He also, even before coming to power, skillfully exploited the composition of the outgoing Bundestag, more favorable than that of the new Parliament, to pass a groundbreaking measure: the lifting of the constitutional debt brake to allow the funding of significant infrastructure projects and military expenditures. But now he needs to act together with his European partners.
It is unquestionably in Paris – where the new chancellor will make, as tradition dictates, his first visit abroad on Wednesday – that expectations are highest. So high that some in Berlin consider them excessive. President Emmanuel Macron and the future German chancellor have already met in recent weeks, notably during a three-hour tête-à-tête dinner at the Elysée, and they have established a good personal relationship, according to sources in Paris.
The two men, both former private finance executives with a penchant for off-the-cuff remarks, have a lot in common. The Elysée noted with satisfaction, in the coalition contract negotiated by the CDU and SPD, the intent to revive the "reflex" of French-German cooperation, a reflex sorely lacking in Olaf Scholz's team, the previous chancellor. Paris now hopes to "resynchronize" the relationship with Berlin, clear up misunderstandings and "address all contentious subjects," particularly on energy and trade.
Beyond bilateral issues, Paris also wants to work with the new German government on the European Union's agenda, which is threatened with falling behind, in order to accelerate the necessary reforms. In this area, France's hope for a solution including a European loan to finance the essential rearmament effort is likely to clash with the conservatism of the CDU and German culture.
This is because it is the security of the continent that Berlin's partners have the greatest expectations. The war in Ukraine, the worsening Russian threat and the United States' disengagement from the European continent demand coordinated action and firm positions from Germany. Proactive on international issues, Merz will be very much in demand at home, particularly within his party, due to the urgency of the German economy's situation.
After Paris on Wednesday, the new chancellor will head to Warsaw the same day to show that Europe is not limited to the French-German machine. This is a very good initiative. At such a perilous time, Europe more than ever needs to rally all its energies.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.